A guideline from the 1990s 'Trinity study': withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one of retirement, adjust that dollar amount for inflation each year, and historically the money lasted at least 30 years in almost every U.S. market period. $1 million supports about $40,000 in year-one income.

How long will $500,000 last in retirement?

Withdrawing $2,500 per month ($30,000/yr, a 6% initial rate) with 5% returns and 3% inflation, about 22-23 years. At $20,000 per year (4% rule), it historically lasts 30+ years.

Retirement Withdrawal Calculator

Q: Is the 4% rule still safe?

It remains a reasonable starting point, though some researchers now suggest 3.5%-4% for longer retirements or high market valuations. Flexibility matters more than the exact number: cutting withdrawals modestly in bad market years dramatically improves survival odds.

The question every retiree actually asks: how long will the money last? Model your withdrawals with returns and inflation, year by year.

Your savings last

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Initial withdrawal rate

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4% rule income for this portfolio

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Total withdrawn

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Year	Annual withdrawal	Ending balance

How the simulation works

Each year: Balance = (Balance − Withdrawals) × (1 + return)
Withdrawals grow with inflation to keep purchasing power constant

Worked example

$500,000 · withdrawing $2,500/mo · 5% returns · 3% inflation:

The starting withdrawal rate is 6% — above the safe zone — and the money runs out in roughly 22 years. Trimming to $1,900/mo (a 4.5% initial rate) extends it past 30.

The 4% rule, and why flexibility beats precision

The Trinity study found that a 4% initial withdrawal, inflation-adjusted annually, survived essentially every historical 30-year U.S. period. That's the basis of the "25× your spending" retirement target (see the retirement calculator). Two honest caveats: this calculator uses constant returns, but real markets deliver bad years early sometimes — "sequence risk" — which can sink a plan that averages fine; and longer retirements (40+ years) argue for 3.5% starts. The best defense isn't a lower number, it's flexibility: skipping the inflation raise or trimming 10% in down years raises historical success rates dramatically. Compare the guaranteed-income alternative with the annuity calculator.

Frequently asked questions

What is the 4% rule?

Withdraw 4% in year one, adjust for inflation annually — historically lasted 30+ years. $1M → $40,000 starting income.

How long will $500,000 last?

About 22–23 years at $2,500/mo (5% returns, 3% inflation); 30+ years at the 4% rule's $1,667/mo.

Is the 4% rule still safe?

A reasonable start; 3.5–4% for long retirements. Spending flexibility in bad years matters more than the exact rate.

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Note: Uses constant returns — real markets vary, and early losses (sequence risk) can shorten outcomes materially. Not financial advice. Last reviewed: July 2026.